How does EB-1 differ from EB-2, and which to pick?

Key answer

EB-1 has priority over EB-2, but the risk splits along a different line. In the first three quarters of fiscal 2026 the denial share of decisions was 59.3% for EB-1A and 50.9% for EB-2 NIW, against 6.2% for EB-1B, 2.8% for EB-1C and 3.1% for EB-2 with an advanced degree. In fiscal 2024 the same two self-petitions stood at 27.8% and 29.0%.

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Breakdown from the data

The answers below are translated from the original Russian - the language of the community chats.

The number of the preference is not what drives the risk; having an employer is. The self-petition routes - EB-1A and EB-2 NIW - are the riskiest branch of both preferences. The employer-backed branches are refused several times less often.
EB-1A requires sustained national or international acclaim and is assessed in two steps: count the criteria, then judge the record as a whole. EB-2 NIW is assessed differently - against the three Dhanasar prongs, where the question is national importance rather than acclaim.
EB-1 needs no PERM and usually has a shorter visa queue; EB-2 NIW also skips PERM but sits in a country-of-birth queue. For many people the real choice is between the two self-petitions, and it is settled by the strength of the evidence, not by which category sounds better.
The trend matters more than the average, and it has run the same way two years in a row. Inside fiscal 2025 the EB-2 NIW denial share went from 37.3% in Q1 to 64.3% in Q4, and EB-1A from 25.3% to 46.6%. Across the first three quarters of fiscal 2026 EB-1A rose from 52.5% to 67.8% while EB-2 NIW fell from 57.5% to 44.7%.

This breakdown is built on real USCIS notices and public sources, linked below. It is reference material, not legal advice: officers decide similar cases differently.

What actually separates the categories

The formal difference is simple: EB-1 is the first preference, EB-2 the second, and a first-preference visa becomes available sooner. But that describes speed, not the chance of approval - and the two get confused constantly.

The line that matters in practice runs elsewhere: between employer-filed petitions and self-petitions. EB-1B (outstanding professor or researcher) and EB-1C (multinational executive or manager) are filed by an employer; EB-2 with an advanced degree runs through PERM. In all three the company carries part of the burden, and the qualification is proven by objective documents: the position, the structure of the organization, the labour-market test.

EB-1A and EB-2 NIW are the only two branches where a person files for themselves and has to prove not employment but the quality of their own profile. Hence the gap in the numbers: their denial share is roughly ten times that of the neighbouring branches in the same preference.

The figures by year: 2024, 2025 and the first half of 2026

The data comes from the USCIS quarterly I-140 reports. What is counted is the denial share of decisions issued: denials divided by approvals plus denials for the year. It is not the 'chance of approval' for any one petition, because decisions land on cases filed at different times and the pending queue is not in the figure.

Fiscal 2024: EB-1A - 12,231 approvals and 4,703 denials, i.e. 27.8% of decisions; EB-2 NIW - 27,526 and 11,256, i.e. 29.0%. Fiscal 2025: EB-1A - 12,468 and 6,165, i.e. 33.1%; NIW - 19,532 and 15,863, i.e. 44.8%. First three quarters of fiscal 2026: EB-1A - 5,232 and 7,620, i.e. 59.3%; NIW - 9,238 and 9,585, i.e. 50.9%. The employer-filed branches stayed inside 2-6% across all three years.

The queue deserves a separate look. EB-2 NIW petitions pending at quarter end stood at 44,093 at the close of fiscal 2024, 74,392 at the close of 2025, and 96,297 in Q3 of 2026 - four times the 22,756 at the start of 2024. For EB-1A: 10,586, 21,157 and 28,874. Decisions have not kept pace: NIW is decided at 5-7 thousand a quarter against 10 thousand two years ago. That is the explanation for the waiting times.

Applying this to your own case

If there is an employer willing to file and the profile is a researcher or professor with international recognition, EB-1B is statistically the safest branch of the first preference - and it is underrated precisely because less is written about it.

With no employer, the choice between EB-1A and EB-2 NIW is a choice between two different evidentiary jobs, not between 'harder' and 'easier'. EB-1A asks you to show recognition: awards, memberships, published material about you, judging, role, salary. NIW asks you to show that the work has substantial merit and national importance, that you are well positioned to advance it, and that waiving the labour-market test benefits the country.

The practical rule: do not pick by the number of the preference. Assemble what you actually have and see which frame it fits without stretching. Material that has to be stretched onto a criterion is a future RFE.

One last point: filing under one category does not close the other. Some people file EB-1A and NIW in parallel, treating the double fee as the price of two independent outcomes. That is lawful, but both packets have to stand on their own and agree with each other - a discrepancy between them is something an officer will see.

Sources

USCIS: published immigration and citizenship data
The quarterly I-140 reports the figures on this page come from.
USCIS: the EB-1 category
USCIS: the EB-2 category
Official overview of EB-2, including the national interest waiver.
USCIS Policy Manual, Volume 6, Part F, Chapter 2
Extraordinary ability: how the agency evaluates the criteria and the record as a whole.
USCIS Policy Manual, Volume 6, Part F, Chapter 5
Advanced degree, exceptional ability and the national interest waiver.
8 CFR 204.5 - the I-140 regulation
The source text of the requirements for each EB-1 and EB-2 category.

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