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Analytics

EB-1A in numbers

Updated: Author: Alina Kanametova

The big picture over 1,242 real AAO appeal decisions. Which criteria get accepted, what petitioners lean on, and how it shifted year over year.

These are appeal decisions from AAO - mostly denials that petitioners challenged. The numbers show patterns worth learning from, but they are not approval odds and not statistics across all filed petitions. «Met when argued» is the share among cases that argued the criterion at all, not the share of approvals.

The numbers in one line each

  • The dataset covers 1,242 public USCIS AAO appeal decisions on EB-1A for 2020-2025.
  • AAO most often accepts the "Authorship" criterion: 76% of the cases that argued it (counted in 360 of 473 cases that argued it).
  • The hardest criterion is "Comparable evidence": accepted in only 2% of the cases that raised it.
  • Petitioners' most common bet is the "Media about you" criterion, argued in 64% of all cases in the base.
  • The largest field in the base is "Arts / design" (343 cases).
  • All figures are computed over appeal cases (mostly challenged denials), so they are preparation lessons - not a petition's approval odds.
1,242
Decisions in the base

AAO appeal decisions, 2020-2025.

3%
Appeal sustained

33 of 1,242 - AAO ruled for the petitioner (sustained).

18%
Remanded for review

218 cases sent back to the service center (remanded).

not approvals
These are appeals

The base is mostly denials that reached appeal. These are lessons, not approval odds.

How appeals end

The outcome of the appeal decisions themselves. They are rarely sustained - which makes the reasons for denials all the more valuable.

  • 3% Sustained(33)
  • 17% Remanded(218)
  • 80% Dismissed(991)

Which criteria get accepted more often

Among cases that argued a criterion at all - what share AAO counted as met. The most passable on top. This is not an approval rate: one criterion is not enough for the final outcome.

  • Authorship76%

    counted in 360 of 473 cases that argued it

  • Judging75%

    counted in 491 of 659 cases that argued it

  • Exhibitions66%

    counted in 149 of 226 cases that argued it

  • Leading role41%

    counted in 256 of 624 cases that argued it

  • Media about you36%

    counted in 286 of 793 cases that argued it

  • High remuneration27%

    counted in 94 of 346 cases that argued it

  • Awards19%

    counted in 129 of 677 cases that argued it

  • Original contribution16%

    counted in 105 of 642 cases that argued it

  • Memberships12%

    counted in 58 of 496 cases that argued it

  • Commercial success11%

    counted in 9 of 81 cases that argued it

  • Comparable evidence2%

    counted in 1 of 64 cases that argued it

Which criteria petitioners lean on

How often a criterion was argued at all - as a share of all cases. Shows what people bet on most.

  • Media about you64%

    argued in 793 of 1,242 cases

  • Awards55%

    argued in 677 of 1,242 cases

  • Judging53%

    argued in 659 of 1,242 cases

  • Original contribution52%

    argued in 642 of 1,242 cases

  • Leading role50%

    argued in 624 of 1,242 cases

  • Memberships40%

    argued in 496 of 1,242 cases

  • Authorship38%

    argued in 473 of 1,242 cases

  • High remuneration28%

    argued in 346 of 1,242 cases

  • Exhibitions18%

    argued in 226 of 1,242 cases

  • Commercial success7%

    argued in 81 of 1,242 cases

  • Comparable evidence5%

    argued in 64 of 1,242 cases

Distribution by field

Which professional fields the cases in the base come from. The bar is scaled to the largest field.

  • Arts / design343

    343 cases in the base

  • Other219

    219 cases in the base

  • Science / research155

    155 cases in the base

  • Business / entrepreneurship143

    143 cases in the base

  • Sport133

    133 cases in the base

  • Engineering / STEM94

    94 cases in the base

  • IT / software69

    69 cases in the base

  • Marketing / PR47

    47 cases in the base

  • Education / psychology20

    20 cases in the base

  • Beauty industry19

    19 cases in the base

Decisions by year

How many appeal decisions are in the base for each year (2020-2025). 2025 is partial.

Patterns of successful cases

A snapshot of 117 anonymized community success stories - "what worked" in actually approved cases. It is other people's experience to borrow tactics from, not approval odds.

EB-1A: 83EB-2 NIW: 23O-1: 1028% had an RFE

The fields these stories come from

  • not specified (10)
  • business (3)
  • photograph (3)
  • art and design (2)
  • biological sciences (2)

O-1

chose the O-1 route for the primary applicant and O-2 for the partner

EB-1A

long and systematic case preparation

EB-2 NIW

clear positioning of the project as having significant benefit for the market

Browse all stories and filter by visa and field

What changed in 2025-2026: a dated timeline

The rule, fee, process and court changes the community chats tracked from Jun 9, 2025, newest first. Each one was checked against the Federal Register, uscis.gov, govinfo.gov or the court docket on Sep 30, 2026; retellings that did not match the source were dropped. The "in the chats" line is our summary, not a quote.

  1. Visa Bulletin

    EB-2 for all countries except China and India became current

    The EB-2 Final Action date for all chargeability areas (Russia included) moved like this: Dec 1, 2023 in the October and November 2025 bulletins, Feb 1, 2024 in December, Apr 1, 2024 in January and February 2026, Oct 15, 2024 in March, and current from April to September 2026. EB-1 for all countries was current throughout.

    In the chats: The chats tracked the EB-2 dates every month, and in spring 2026 linked the movement to the 75-country visa pause.

    As of Sep 30, 2026: The October 2026 bulletin set an EB-2 Final Action date for all countries again: Jan 1, 2025.

    More on this topic
  2. Fees and payment

    Premium processing went up to $2,965

    A DHS rule of Jan 12, 2026, in force since Mar 1, 2026: the premium processing fee that was $2,805 (including for I-140 and for O-1 on the I-129) rose to $2,965, an inflation adjustment for June 2023 to June 2025.

    In the chats: In January 2026 the chats recalculated filing budgets for the new amount ahead of time.

    More on this topic
  3. Court

    Mukherji v. Miller: a court set aside an EB-1A denial

    The federal District Court for Nebraska granted the petitioner summary judgment under the Administrative Procedure Act, set aside the USCIS denial of the EB-1A petition and remanded it with instructions to approve. The opinion deals with the two-step review and its final merits determination. It is a district court ruling in one case, not a new rule for USCIS.

    In the chats: In February 2026 the chats discussed it as a reason to take a final merits denial to court rather than only to the AAO; the chat retellings often read broader than the ruling itself.

    As of Sep 30, 2026: On Mar 27, 2026 the government appealed to the Eighth Circuit, and on Jun 10, 2026 the Court of Appeals dismissed the appeal on the government's own motion.

    Court record: Mukherji v. Miller, 4:24-cv-03170 (D. Neb.): Memorandum and Order (ECF 24) and Judgment (ECF 25) of Jan 28, 2026; appeal 26-1578 (8th Cir.), dismissed on Jun 10, 2026 under Rule 42(b)

    More on this topic
  4. Visas and entry

    Immigrant visa issuance paused for nationals of 75 countries

    From Jan 21, 2026 the State Department stopped issuing immigrant visas to nationals of 75 countries, including Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, citing the risk of reliance on public benefits. The pause covered visa issuance at consulates, not USCIS adjudication of petitions.

    In the chats: From mid-January 2026 this was the main topic in the chats: interviews went ahead but no visa was issued, and many weighed going through an O-1 and then filing for EB-1 from inside the US.

    As of Sep 30, 2026: On Aug 21, 2026 a federal court held the pause unlawful and on Aug 24, 2026 vacated it; the government has appealed.

    Court record: CLINIC v. Rubio, 1:26-cv-00858 (S.D.N.Y.): opinion of Aug 21, 2026, judgment of Aug 24, 2026 (ECF 84); appeal 26-2573 (2d Cir.)

    More on this topic
  5. Visas and entry

    Proclamation 10998: the country list expanded

    Signed on Dec 16, 2025, in force since Jan 1, 2026: it keeps the June 2025 restrictions and adds countries under full and partial entry limits.

    More on this topic
  6. USCIS process

    I-140 can be filed online

    Since Dec 16, 2025 USCIS accepts I-140 online by PDF upload, but only as a standalone petition (with a G-28 if there is a representative). If premium is wanted from the start, the I-140 and I-907 go by mail; for a pending petition whose receipt starts with IOE, the I-907 can be uploaded later.

    In the chats: In late December 2025 the chats worked through online filing and its main limit: premium cannot be requested up front.

    More on this topic
  7. USCIS process

    A new photo for I-485, I-90, N-400 and N-600

    Policy Alert PA-2025-29 of Dec 12, 2025: for these forms USCIS no longer reuses an old photograph and collects new biometrics with a photo; it applies to filings made on or after the publication date.

    More on this topic
  8. Rule

    EADs capped at 18 months again

    A Policy Manual update of Dec 4, 2025, in force since Dec 5, 2025: the maximum validity of initial and renewal work permits for several categories, including a pending I-485 (category (c)(9)), goes from 5 years back to 18 months; five-year cards already issued are not affected.

    In the chats: For those waiting on a green card inside the US this was one of the main news items of December 2025: together with the end of automatic extensions it made a gap in work authorization a real risk.

    More on this topic
  9. USCIS process

    USCIS put holds on filings by nationals of the proclamation countries

    Memo PM-602-0192 of Dec 2, 2025 put on hold every asylum application (I-589) and the pending filings of nationals of the Proclamation 10949 countries until a comprehensive review; from Jan 1, 2026 memo PM-602-0194 extended the hold to nationals of the Proclamation 10998 countries.

    As of Sep 30, 2026: In June 2026 a federal court in Rhode Island vacated both memos, and in August the Court of Appeals stayed that ruling only as to the re-review of approved cases; both documents on uscis.gov now carry a note that they are not in effect because of court orders.

    More on this topic
  10. Rule

    Public charge: DHS proposed rescinding the 2022 rule

    The proposed rule was published on Nov 19, 2025, with comments until Dec 19, 2025: restore broad officer discretion in judging whether a person is likely to depend on public benefits.

    In the chats: In November and December 2025 the chats described consular interviews with detailed questions on health, income and work plans.

    As of Sep 30, 2026: The final rule was published on Jul 20, 2026 and is in force since Sep 18, 2026; it is being challenged in court.

    More on this topic
  11. Visas and entry

    Immigrant visas only in the country of residence or nationality

    From Nov 1, 2025 NVC schedules immigrant visa interviews in the consular district of the place of residence or, on request, in the country of nationality; exceptions are humanitarian, medical or foreign-policy. Residents of countries without routine US visa operations apply at their designated post. For the DV lottery the rule applies in future program years.

    As of Sep 30, 2026: The State Department page was updated on Jul 15, 2026 (checked Oct 2, 2026). Per the list of posts, Russian and Belarusian nationals are scheduled in Warsaw; Almaty and Tashkent only for the IR-5 category.

    More on this topic
  12. Rule

    The end of automatic EAD extensions

    A DHS interim final rule in force since Oct 30, 2025: whoever files to renew an employment authorization document on or after Oct 30, 2025 no longer gets an automatic extension of the old card while the renewal is pending, except where a law or a Federal Register notice provides one.

    More on this topic
  13. Fees and payment

    USCIS takes electronic payment only

    Since Oct 28, 2025 USCIS does not accept checks or money orders with paper filings: pay by card with Form G-1450 or by debit from a US bank account with Form G-1650; a paper payment is allowed only under an exemption (Form G-1651).

    In the chats: During the transition weeks the chats reported petitions sent with money orders that came back or sat unaccepted for weeks.

    More on this topic
  14. USCIS process

    The government funding lapse (shutdown)

    Fiscal year 2026 began on Oct 1, 2025 without enacted appropriations; the lapse ended with the continuing appropriations act signed on Nov 12, 2025 (Public Law 119-37).

    In the chats: In October and November 2025 the chats noted a pause in NVC letters after DQ and slower I-485 decisions; in mid-November NVC letters started arriving again.

    More on this topic
  15. Fees and payment

    The $100,000 payment on new H-1B petitions

    Proclamation 10973 was signed on Sep 19, 2025 and took effect on Sep 21, 2025: entry of an H-1B worker is restricted unless the petition carries a $100,000 payment; DHS decides the exceptions.

    In the chats: In early 2026 the chats cited it as a reason to prepare an O-1 or EB-1 in parallel rather than count on an H-1B sponsor.

    As of Sep 30, 2026: On Jun 8, 2026 a court vacated the documents that implemented the payment, and the appeal is pending; the proclamation itself was extended on Sep 18, 2026 to Sep 21, 2027.

    More on this topic
  16. Fees and payment

    DV lottery: a $1 registration fee

    A State Department rule in force since Sep 16, 2025: a separate $1 fee for the lottery registration itself is added to the $330 DV immigrant visa fee.

    More on this topic
  17. Visas and entry

    Proclamation 10949: entry restricted for nationals of listed countries

    Signed on Jun 4, 2025, in force since Jun 9, 2025: for nationals of the listed countries entry, and with it visa issuance including immigrant visas, is suspended in full or in part. The exceptions are listed in the proclamation itself.

    In the chats: In autumn 2025 the chats described family EB-2 NIW interviews where the applicant was approved and a family member holding a listed citizenship was refused under the proclamation.

    More on this topic

Sources

Next

What gets challenged: the stats

A second cut of the same data: denial grounds per criterion and the successful-cases snapshot.

AAO appeals base

Search and filter 1,242 cases by criterion, field, outcome.

Criteria one by one

A breakdown of each criterion with "from real decisions" numbers.

Readiness assessment

Gauge your standing against the criteria in light of these patterns.

Methodology: how these numbers are made

1. The source is the public PDF decisions of the USCIS Administrative Appeals Office (AAO) for EB-1A, 2020-2025. 2. From each decision we extract structured facts: the appeal outcome, year, the petitioner's field, and the verdict for every argued criterion (met / not met / not claimed). 3. Every figure on this page is a straight count over that table; nothing is modeled or extrapolated. 4. The base grows as new decisions are published, and the page recomputes automatically.

Limitations: these are appeal cases (a denial-skewed sample); "met when argued" is a share within cases that argued the criterion; fields are read from the decision text and may be imprecise in individual cases.

Citing: the data is open (CC BY 4.0). When using it, credit "uscis.love AAO decisions dataset" with a link to this page - and send questions via the contact page; we can help with task-specific extracts.

Based on: 1,242 AAO EB-1A appeal decisions · issued Jan 2020 - Feb 2025 · USCIS: AAO non-precedent decisions · all decisions

Sources

Data source: public decisions of the USCIS Administrative Appeals Office (AAO), uscis.gov/administrative-appeals. Unofficial, community-assembled site: not affiliated with USCIS or any US government agency. Always double-check everything on the official uscis.gov and travel.state.gov. Not legal advice.